It’s that time of year when we start watching the sky and whispering to the snow gods, what’s this winter going to bring? The 2025 Snow Season Outlook might be cautious, but on the ground, things are already stirring. Some New Zealand fields – notably Mt Hutt, are gearing up for one of their earliest openings on record. It’s a promising start, even if the long-range forecasts are holding back the big calls for now.
Mountainwatch has just released its first 2025 snow season outlook
While it doesn’t scream powder days from day one, it’s not full doom and gloom either. The early signs? A little warmer than we’d like and possibly fewer of those crisp, cold southwesterly systems we’ve come to rely on for decent dumps. In short, a slower start could be on the cards. In saying that perhaps we should ask Mt Hutt ? They are opening next week! (the 31st of May)
But let’s not hang up the skis just yet
There’s still hope riding in on the back of short-term climate influences like the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). SAM can swing the mood of a season pretty quickly – if it turns positive at the right time, it can funnel in some proper cold air from the south. That’s the kind of wildcard that can turn a patchy forecast into a mid-season miracle.
The concern right now is freezing levels – if those stay high, it’s trouble for lower-elevation resorts. We’re talking places like Whakapapa’s lower slopes or even early-season conditions across club fields that rely on a solid base to get going.
NIWA’s seasonal outlook for 2025
NIWA’s latest seasonal outlook for April through July gives us a mixed bag heading into winter. Rainfall looks pretty average overall, though the eastern regions might see a bit more than usual. As for temperatures, the trend is leaning warmer than normal across most of the country, something to watch as we get closer to the start of the season. Source: NIWA
This is Mountainwatch's first New Zealand 2025 Snow Season Outlook, not the final word
Things change. More cold snaps in late May or early June can turn the tables fast (and we have already seen this in the South Island). Timing is everything, as always.
So what do we do in the meantime? Watch the models. Read the forecasts. Mountainwatch’s updates from early June will dive deep into the local weather patterns with all the good data, maps, and insight you’ll need to pick your powder windows. It’s not just about averages – it’s about being ready when the good stuff hits.
Until then, stay flexible, get your gear sorted, and maybe start doing your snow dances now! Just in case we need a little extra help this year.
This early-season forecast comes straight from Mountainwatch – check out their full report and follow along as they update things closer to June.
I’ll be keeping an eye on it too and updating here as the season shapes up
Until then, stay flexible, get your gear sorted, and maybe start doing your snow dances now! Just in case we need a little extra help this year.
This early-season forecast comes straight from Mountainwatch – check out their full report and follow along as they update things closer to June.
